Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?
traffic · market-implied 96.8%
Recent price
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for April 30, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to April 30, 2026, for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for April 30, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Active signals
Market Overreaction
Confidence Mid-highEdge
-11.0 pts
Strong edge
Market-implied
96.8%
Model estimate
14.3%
YES
96.8%
NO
3.3%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: 1h move +17.5 pts · 4.6× typical volatility
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
+1.2 pts
Early edge
Market-implied
96.8%
Model estimate
98.0%
YES
96.8%
NO
3.3%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +4.6 pts · Δ24h +4.6 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
96.8%
NO
3.3%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.025 vs 0.019 · thin top-book
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 96.8%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 85.8%, indicating a possible -11.0 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: 1h move +17.5 pts · 4.6× typical volatility
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
- Larger gaps can persist when the market is thin, has wide spreads, or is slow to update.
Related markets
- Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?
- Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?
- Will there be between 20 and 30 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?
- Will there be between 50 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?
- Will there be between 40 and 50 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?
- Will there be between 30 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?
Execution
YES
NO