Elections · market-implied 1.9%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Colombia on 8 March 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the Colombian Chamber of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Chamber of Representatives. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
1.9%
NO
98.0%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.048 vs 0.010 · thin top-book
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
+0.1 pts
Early edge
Market-implied
1.9%
Model estimate
2.0%
YES
1.9%
NO
98.0%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -4.8 pts · Δ24h -4.8 pts (same direction)
This page summarizes current market-implied probability and any active rule-based signals from ingested public data.
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.048 vs 0.010 · thin top-book
YES
NO