Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?
Finance · market-implied 86.5%
Recent price
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at any point, Anthropic's most recent public or private valuation is greater than OpenAI's most recent public or private valuation, by December 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Private valuation refers to the valuation of a company as established in a completed funding round. Qualifying private valuations must be explicitly confirmed by the company whose value is observed, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Public valuation refers to the company’s market capitalization (number of shares outstanding multiplied by the current share price). The primary resolution source will be official communications from Anthropic and OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Active signals
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
-1.5 pts
Early edge
Market-implied
86.5%
Model estimate
15.0%
YES
86.5%
NO
13.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -3.5 pts · Δ24h -3.5 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
86.5%
NO
13.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.010 vs 0.015 · thin top-book
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 86.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 85.0%, indicating a possible -1.5 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -3.5 pts · Δ24h -3.5 pts (same direction)
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
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Execution
YES
NO