MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?
Crypto · market-implied 99.8%
Recent price
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of MegaETH's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 24 hours after launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If MegaETH doesn't launch a token by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
Active signals
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
-9.3 pts
Strong edge
Market-implied
99.8%
Model estimate
9.5%
YES
99.8%
NO
0.3%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +11.0 pts · Δ24h +11.0 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
99.8%
NO
0.3%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.003 vs 0.010 · thin top-book
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 99.8%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 90.5%, indicating a possible -9.3 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +11.0 pts · Δ24h +11.0 pts (same direction)
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
- Larger gaps can persist when the market is thin, has wide spreads, or is slow to update.
Execution
YES
NO