Politics · market-implied 0.5%
This market will resolve according to the listed date range during which Jerome Powell vacates his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify. The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair. This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution. All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
+1.5 pts
Early edge
Market-implied
0.5%
Model estimate
2.0%
YES
0.5%
NO
99.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -3.3 pts · Δ24h -3.3 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
0.5%
NO
99.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.005 vs 0.003 · thin top-book
This market is currently priced at 0.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 2.0%, indicating a possible +1.5 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -3.3 pts · Δ24h -3.3 pts (same direction)
YES
NO