BinaryStreaks

Natural Disaster in 2026?

Updated 2 min ago

How to read the numbers

Implied / market-implied YES

The probability of YES implied by current traded prices (mid or last). It is what participants are paying for, not a claim about real-world odds.

Model estimate

A rule-based heuristic from the signal engine when a rule sets one, not a black-box forecast. Some signals only describe liquidity or spreads and may show no model estimate.

Edge / gap

The difference between the model estimate and market-implied, in percentage points (model minus market for YES). Filters may use “largest gap.” This is informational only-not trading advice or guaranteed advantage.

Stance (above / below / near estimate)

Compares market-implied to the model estimate when both exist. Labels are not buy or sell recommendations.

Confidence

A simple UI clarity label for signals (not a prediction). It summarizes the signal’s own magnitude/quality metrics into one of: Low, Mid-low, Mid, Mid-high, or High.

Volume

Reported trading activity for the market, for context on size and liquidity.

Change & sparklines

Movement in market-implied YES over the window labeled on the card-often 24h where data allows.

Signals

Rule-based flags from ingested public data. They are not trade recommendations.

More detail in Methodology.

Science · market-implied 28.5%

PolymarketVolume ~217,278.178← All markets

Recent price

28.5%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET: - A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US - A major meteor strikes (10kt+) - A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6) - An 8.5+ earthquake occurs Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf

Active signals

Natural Disaster in 2026?
Polymarket

Low Liquidity Warning

Confidence Mid

YES

28.5%

NO

71.5%

Market-implied probability split (public data)

Why this is flagged: Spread 0.010 vs 0.015 · thin top-book

Market summary

This page summarizes current market-implied probability and any active rule-based signals from ingested public data.

Why this is flagged: Spread 0.010 vs 0.015 · thin top-book

What this means

  • This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
  • Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
  • BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.

Related links

Browse all markets →Browse signals →Explore related topic →More in Science →

Related markets

Execution

YES

Best bid (sell)
28¢
Best ask (buy)
29¢
Spread
1¢
Midpoint
29¢
Depth (top level)
bid 253.51 · ask 111

NO

Best bid (sell)
71¢
Best ask (buy)
72¢
Spread
1¢
Midpoint
72¢
Depth (top level)
bid 111 · ask 253.51