Israel withdraws from Lebanon by April 30, 2026?
Geopolitics · market-implied 0.1%
Recent price
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Market summary
This page summarizes current market-implied probability and any active rule-based signals from ingested public data.
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.007 vs 0.004 · thin top-book
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
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Execution
YES
No live book
NO
No live book