BinaryStreaks

Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes

How to read the numbers

Implied / market-implied YES

The probability of YES implied by current traded prices (mid or last). It is what participants are paying for, not a claim about real-world odds.

Estimated fair value (EFV)

A rule-based heuristic from the signal engine when a rule sets one, not a black-box forecast. Some signals only describe liquidity or spreads and may show no EFV.

Edge / gap

The difference between EFV and market-implied, in percentage points (EFV minus market for YES). Filters may use “largest gap.” This is informational only—not trading advice or guaranteed advantage.

Stance (above / below / near estimate)

Compares market-implied to EFV when both exist. Labels are not buy or sell recommendations.

Severity

How strong the rule hit is on a 1–5 scale. It reflects rule strength, not statistical confidence that the outcome will occur.

Volume

Reported trading activity for the market, for context on size and liquidity.

Change & sparklines

Movement in market-implied YES over the window labeled on the card—often 24h where data allows.

Signals

Rule-based flags from ingested public data. They are not trade recommendations.

More detail in Methodology.

Market-implied 76.5%

Near estimateVolume ~6,169,332.982← All markets

Recent price

76.5%

In the upcoming CBB game, scheduled for March 28 at 6:09 PM ET: If the Illinois Fighting Illini win, the market will resolve to "Illinois Fighting Illini". If the Iowa Hawkeyes win, the market will resolve to "Iowa Hawkeyes". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

Active signals

Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa HawkeyesNear estimate

Overreaction

Market-implied

76.5%

Est. fair value

75.0%

Edge -1.5 pts (EFV − market)

Severity5 / 5

Why this is flagged: 1h move of 3.0 pts is 6.0× typical short-term volatility—larger than usual vs the past week.

Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes—

Order book

Market-implied

76.5%

Est. fair value

—

No EFV for this rule — liquidity / spread only.

Severity1 / 5

Why this is flagged: Top-of-book liquidity is thinner than usual at a 0.010 bid–ask spread—min side is well under recent median depth. Prices may be noisier.