Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31, 2026?

Updated 5d ago

How to read the numbers

Implied / market-implied YES

The probability of YES implied by current traded prices (mid or last). It is what participants are paying for, not a claim about real-world odds.

Model estimate

A rule-based heuristic from the signal engine when a rule sets one, not a black-box forecast. Some signals only describe liquidity or spreads and may show no model estimate.

Edge / gap

The difference between the model estimate and market-implied, in percentage points (model minus market for YES). Filters may use “largest gap.” This is informational only-not trading advice or guaranteed advantage.

Stance (above / below / near estimate)

Compares market-implied to the model estimate when both exist. Labels are not buy or sell recommendations.

Confidence

A simple UI clarity label for signals (not a prediction). It summarizes the signal’s own magnitude/quality metrics into one of: Low, Mid-low, Mid, Mid-high, or High.

Volume

Reported trading activity for the market, for context on size and liquidity.

Change & sparklines

Movement in market-implied YES over the window labeled on the card-often 24h where data allows.

Signals

Rule-based flags from ingested public data. They are not trade recommendations.

More detail in Methodology.

Crypto · market-implied 33.0%

PolymarketVolume ~101,207.017← All markets

Recent price

33.0%

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if the USDC marketcap is equal to or greater than 50% of USDT marketcap on any day by December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." This market will resolve based on CoinGecko's "historical data" section for each coin, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/usd-coin/historical_data#panel and https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether/historical_data#panel respectively, specifically the daily "Market Cap" data. The daily market cap data for any given date will be considered finalized once data for the following calendar day is published on CoinGecko’s “Historical Data” page for both USDC and USDT. This market will resolve based on the specified CoinGecko chart, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Market summary

This market is currently priced at 33.0%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 33.0%, indicating a possible 0.0 percentage point difference.

Why this is flagged: Δ6h -9.0 pts · Δ24h -9.0 pts (same direction)

What this means

  • This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
  • Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
  • BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.

Execution

YES

Best bid (sell)
21¢
Best ask (buy)
45¢
Spread
24¢
Midpoint
33¢
Depth (top level)
bid 40 · ask 9.54

NO

Best bid (sell)
55¢
Best ask (buy)
79¢
Spread
24¢
Midpoint
67¢
Depth (top level)
bid 9.54 · ask 40