Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?
World · market-implied 24.5%
Recent price
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Masoud Pezeshkian ceases to be President of Iran for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Masoud Pezeshkian's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Masoud Pezeshkian and the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Active signals
Market Overreaction
Confidence MidEdge
+1.3 pts
Early edge
Market-implied
24.5%
Model estimate
25.8%
YES
24.5%
NO
75.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: 1h move -1.5 pts · 3.0× typical volatility
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
+6.0 pts
Strong edge
Market-implied
24.5%
Model estimate
30.5%
YES
24.5%
NO
75.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -4.5 pts · Δ24h -4.5 pts (same direction)
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 24.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 25.8%, indicating a possible +1.3 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: 1h move -1.5 pts · 3.0× typical volatility
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
Related markets
Execution
YES
NO