Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch?
Crypto · market-implied 3.3%
Recent price
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Metamask's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Metamask doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Active signals
Market Overreaction
Confidence MidEdge
+2.7 pts
Moderate edge
Market-implied
3.3%
Model estimate
6.0%
YES
3.3%
NO
96.7%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: 1h move +1.6 pts · 3.2× typical volatility
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
3.3%
NO
96.7%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.022 vs 0.011 · thin top-book
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 3.3%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 6.0%, indicating a possible +2.7 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: 1h move +1.6 pts · 3.2× typical volatility
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
Execution
YES
NO