BinaryStreaks

US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?

Updated 12d ago

How to read the numbers

Implied / market-implied YES

The probability of YES implied by current traded prices (mid or last). It is what participants are paying for, not a claim about real-world odds.

Model estimate

A rule-based heuristic from the signal engine when a rule sets one, not a black-box forecast. Some signals only describe liquidity or spreads and may show no model estimate.

Edge / gap

The difference between the model estimate and market-implied, in percentage points (model minus market for YES). Filters may use “largest gap.” This is informational only-not trading advice or guaranteed advantage.

Stance (above / below / near estimate)

Compares market-implied to the model estimate when both exist. Labels are not buy or sell recommendations.

Confidence

A simple UI clarity label for signals (not a prediction). It summarizes the signal’s own magnitude/quality metrics into one of: Low, Mid-low, Mid, Mid-high, or High.

Volume

Reported trading activity for the market, for context on size and liquidity.

Change & sparklines

Movement in market-implied YES over the window labeled on the card-often 24h where data allows.

Signals

Rule-based flags from ingested public data. They are not trade recommendations.

More detail in Methodology.

Crypto · market-implied 28.5%

Below estimatePolymarketVolume ~38,666.32← All markets

Recent price

28.5%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government holds any amount of Bitcoin in its reserves at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that the US government confiscating Bitcoin does not count as holding Bitcoin reserves. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and/or the US federal reserve, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Active signals

US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?
Polymarket
Below estimate

Trend Continuation

Confidence Low
Opportunity: YES sideModel leaning YES

Edge

+3.0 pts

Moderate edge

Market-implied

28.5%

Model estimate

31.5%

YES

28.5%

NO

71.5%

Market-implied probability split (public data)

Why this is flagged: Δ6h +7.5 pts · Δ24h +7.5 pts (same direction)

Market summary

This market is currently priced at 28.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 31.5%, indicating a possible +3.0 percentage point difference.

Why this is flagged: Δ6h +7.5 pts · Δ24h +7.5 pts (same direction)

What this means

  • This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
  • Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
  • BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.

Related links

Browse all markets →Browse signals →Explore related topic →More in Crypto →

Related markets

Execution

YES

No live book

NO

No live book