Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the April Meeting?

Updated 2 min ago

How to read the numbers

Implied / market-implied YES

The probability of YES implied by current traded prices (mid or last). It is what participants are paying for, not a claim about real-world odds.

Model estimate

A rule-based heuristic from the signal engine when a rule sets one, not a black-box forecast. Some signals only describe liquidity or spreads and may show no model estimate.

Edge / gap

The difference between the model estimate and market-implied, in percentage points (model minus market for YES). Filters may use “largest gap.” This is informational only-not trading advice or guaranteed advantage.

Stance (above / below / near estimate)

Compares market-implied to the model estimate when both exist. Labels are not buy or sell recommendations.

Confidence

A simple UI clarity label for signals (not a prediction). It summarizes the signal’s own magnitude/quality metrics into one of: Low, Mid-low, Mid, Mid-high, or High.

Volume

Reported trading activity for the market, for context on size and liquidity.

Change & sparklines

Movement in market-implied YES over the window labeled on the card-often 24h where data allows.

Signals

Rule-based flags from ingested public data. They are not trade recommendations.

More detail in Methodology.

Economy · market-implied 97.5%

Above estimatePolymarketVolume ~77,711.541← All markets

Recent price

97.5%

This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s April meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its April 24, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13 This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their April 24, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Market summary

This market is currently priced at 97.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 91.5%, indicating a possible -5.9 percentage point difference.

Why this is flagged: Δ6h +6.0 pts · Δ24h +6.0 pts (same direction)

What this means

  • This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
  • Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
  • BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
  • Larger gaps can persist when the market is thin, has wide spreads, or is slow to update.

Execution

YES

Best bid (sell)
97¢
Best ask (buy)
98¢
Spread
Midpoint
97¢
Depth (top level)
bid 30 · ask 500

NO

Best bid (sell)
Best ask (buy)
Spread
Midpoint
Depth (top level)
bid 500 · ask 30