Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?
Politics · market-implied 27.5%
Recent price
This market will resolve to "Yes" if India initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Pakistani territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Indian military forces that impact Pakistani territory (e.g., if an Indian missile or drone hits a target within Pakistan’s borders, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching Pakistani territory, as well as surface-to-air missile strikes, will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether debris lands on Pakistani soil or causes damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or any operation conducted by Indian ground forces will not qualify as a strike under this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Active signals
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
0.0 pts
Market-implied
27.5%
Model estimate
-
YES
27.5%
NO
72.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +4.5 pts · Δ24h +4.5 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
27.5%
NO
72.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.010 · thin top-book
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 27.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 27.5%, indicating a possible 0.0 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +4.5 pts · Δ24h +4.5 pts (same direction)
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
Related markets
- Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
- Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
- Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Execution
YES
NO