BinaryStreaks

Madrid Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alex Michelsen

Updated 7d ago

How to read the numbers

Implied / market-implied YES

The probability of YES implied by current traded prices (mid or last). It is what participants are paying for, not a claim about real-world odds.

Model estimate

A rule-based heuristic from the signal engine when a rule sets one, not a black-box forecast. Some signals only describe liquidity or spreads and may show no model estimate.

Edge / gap

The difference between the model estimate and market-implied, in percentage points (model minus market for YES). Filters may use “largest gap.” This is informational only-not trading advice or guaranteed advantage.

Stance (above / below / near estimate)

Compares market-implied to the model estimate when both exist. Labels are not buy or sell recommendations.

Confidence

A simple UI clarity label for signals (not a prediction). It summarizes the signal’s own magnitude/quality metrics into one of: Low, Mid-low, Mid, Mid-high, or High.

Volume

Reported trading activity for the market, for context on size and liquidity.

Change & sparklines

Movement in market-implied YES over the window labeled on the card-often 24h where data allows.

Signals

Rule-based flags from ingested public data. They are not trade recommendations.

More detail in Methodology.

Sports · market-implied 54.5%

PolymarketVolume ~72,965.733← All markets

Recent price

54.5%

This market refers to the tennis match between Jan-Lennard Struff and Alex Michelsen in the Madrid Open, originally scheduled for April 24, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jan-Lennard Struff' if Jan-Lennard Struff advances against Alex Michelsen. This market will resolve to 'Alex Michelsen' if Alex Michelsen advances against Jan-Lennard Struff. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Active signals

Madrid Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alex Michelsen
Polymarket

Trend Continuation

Confidence Low

Edge

0.0 pts

Market-implied

54.5%

Model estimate

-

YES

54.5%

NO

45.5%

Market-implied probability split (public data)

Why this is flagged: Δ6h +7.5 pts · Δ24h +7.5 pts (same direction)

Market summary

This market is currently priced at 54.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 54.5%, indicating a possible 0.0 percentage point difference.

Why this is flagged: Δ6h +7.5 pts · Δ24h +7.5 pts (same direction)

What this means

  • This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
  • Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
  • BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.

Related links

Browse all markets →Browse signals →Explore related topic →More in Sports →

Related markets

Execution

YES

Best bid (sell)
54¢
Best ask (buy)
55¢
Spread
1¢
Midpoint
55¢
Depth (top level)
bid 22,183.51 · ask 23,132.69

NO

Best bid (sell)
45¢
Best ask (buy)
46¢
Spread
1¢
Midpoint
46¢
Depth (top level)
bid 23,132.69 · ask 22,183.51