crude · market-implied 0.3%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes a weekly figure for U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve less than or equal to the specified value for any week ending on or before May 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the listed value is reached, or once data has been released for the final week ending on or before May 1, 2026, and the listed value has not been reached. If data has not been released for the final week ending on or before May 1, 2026, by May 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Energy Information Administration, specifically the weekly data published for the U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W. Note: this market’s resolution source publishes weekly values of U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in thousands of barrels. Thus, this will be the level of specificity used to resolve this market.
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
+21.3 pts
Strong edge
Market-implied
0.3%
Model estimate
21.5%
YES
0.3%
NO
99.8%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -11.0 pts · Δ24h -11.0 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
0.3%
NO
99.8%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.001 vs 0.006 · thin top-book
This market is currently priced at 0.3%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 21.5%, indicating a possible +21.3 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -11.0 pts · Δ24h -11.0 pts (same direction)
YES
NO