BinaryStreaks

Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026?

Updated 9d ago

How to read the numbers

Implied / market-implied YES

The probability of YES implied by current traded prices (mid or last). It is what participants are paying for, not a claim about real-world odds.

Model estimate

A rule-based heuristic from the signal engine when a rule sets one, not a black-box forecast. Some signals only describe liquidity or spreads and may show no model estimate.

Edge / gap

The difference between the model estimate and market-implied, in percentage points (model minus market for YES). Filters may use “largest gap.” This is informational only-not trading advice or guaranteed advantage.

Stance (above / below / near estimate)

Compares market-implied to the model estimate when both exist. Labels are not buy or sell recommendations.

Confidence

A simple UI clarity label for signals (not a prediction). It summarizes the signal’s own magnitude/quality metrics into one of: Low, Mid-low, Mid, Mid-high, or High.

Volume

Reported trading activity for the market, for context on size and liquidity.

Change & sparklines

Movement in market-implied YES over the window labeled on the card-often 24h where data allows.

Signals

Rule-based flags from ingested public data. They are not trade recommendations.

More detail in Methodology.

Politics · market-implied 25.5%

PolymarketVolume ~47,816.565← All markets

Recent price

25.5%

Donald Trump showed the middle finger to an individual heckling him at a Minnesota Ford plant on January 13 (see: https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/13/politics/ford-plant-trump-middle-finger-flip). This market will resolve to “Yes” if photo or video evidence shows Donald Trump giving the middle finger to anybody else by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying video or photo must show Donald Trump raising his middle finger while keeping the rest of his fingers down in the gesture commonly referred to as “flipping the bird”. Evidence must show Trump making the gesture in a context that could reasonably indicate it is directed at a person or group, even if it does not indicate so definitively. Past instances such as Donald Trump showing his middle finger at a Black History Month event (https://www.c-span.org/clip/white-house-event/user-clip-trump-middle-finger/4654155) or while speaking to female astronauts (https://www.c-span.org/clip/white-house-event/user-clip-trump-flips-off-women-astronauts/4823553) would both count. Photo or video evidence of Trump extending his middle finger while keeping the rest of his fingers down in a context which in no way indicates that the gesture was intentional or directed at an individual or group will not count. AI-generated images or video will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be photo or video evidence of Donald Trump raising his middle finger.

Active signals

Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026?
Polymarket

Trend Continuation

Confidence Low
Opportunity: YES sideModel leaning YES

Edge

+1.0 pts

Early edge

Market-implied

25.5%

Model estimate

26.5%

YES

25.5%

NO

74.5%

Market-implied probability split (public data)

Why this is flagged: Δ6h +3.5 pts · Δ24h +3.5 pts (same direction)

Market summary

This market is currently priced at 25.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 26.5%, indicating a possible +1.0 percentage point difference.

Why this is flagged: Δ6h +3.5 pts · Δ24h +3.5 pts (same direction)

What this means

  • This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
  • Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
  • BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.

Related links

Browse all markets →Browse signals →Explore related topic →More in Politics →

Related markets

Execution

YES

Best bid (sell)
22¢
Best ask (buy)
29¢
Spread
7¢
Midpoint
26¢
Depth (top level)
bid 21.16 · ask 81.02

NO

Best bid (sell)
71¢
Best ask (buy)
78¢
Spread
7¢
Midpoint
75¢
Depth (top level)
bid 81.02 · ask 21.16