Politics · market-implied 89.0%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence Mid-lowYES
89.0%
NO
11.0%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.050 vs 0.030 · thin top-book
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
-1.0 pts
Early edge
Market-implied
89.0%
Model estimate
12.0%
YES
89.0%
NO
11.0%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +4.0 pts · Δ24h +4.0 pts (same direction)
This page summarizes current market-implied probability and any active rule-based signals from ingested public data.
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.050 vs 0.030 · thin top-book
YES
NO