Sports · market-implied 23.6%
This market will resolve according to the next UFC fighter that Petr Yan is officially announced to face in a UFC bout. Resolution for this market will be based on the next UFC fighter that Petr Yan is officially announced to fight, regardless of whether the fight ends up taking place. Only official announcements from the UFC, which include a scheduled date for the bout, will count. Announcements with no date or which do not confirm that the fight is official, speculation, or other unofficial announcements will not count. If Yan is officially announced to fight any non-listed fighter or no qualifying announcement is made by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/).
Market Overreaction
Confidence HighEdge
-12.3 pts
Strong edge
Market-implied
23.6%
Model estimate
88.7%
YES
23.6%
NO
76.4%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: 1h move +3.6 pts · 6.1× typical volatility
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
-9.8 pts
Strong edge
Market-implied
23.6%
Model estimate
86.2%
YES
23.6%
NO
76.4%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -4.0 pts · Δ24h -4.0 pts (same direction)
This market is currently priced at 23.6%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 11.3%, indicating a possible -12.3 percentage point difference.
Over the last 6h, market-implied probability moved from 22.9% to 23.6% (+0.6 pts).
Why this is flagged: 1h move +3.6 pts · 6.1× typical volatility
YES
NO