Will Petr Yan fight Sean O’Malley next?

Updated just now

How to read the numbers

Implied / market-implied YES

The probability of YES implied by current traded prices (mid or last). It is what participants are paying for, not a claim about real-world odds.

Model estimate

A rule-based heuristic from the signal engine when a rule sets one, not a black-box forecast. Some signals only describe liquidity or spreads and may show no model estimate.

Edge / gap

The difference between the model estimate and market-implied, in percentage points (model minus market for YES). Filters may use “largest gap.” This is informational only-not trading advice or guaranteed advantage.

Stance (above / below / near estimate)

Compares market-implied to the model estimate when both exist. Labels are not buy or sell recommendations.

Confidence

A simple UI clarity label for signals (not a prediction). It summarizes the signal’s own magnitude/quality metrics into one of: Low, Mid-low, Mid, Mid-high, or High.

Volume

Reported trading activity for the market, for context on size and liquidity.

Change & sparklines

Movement in market-implied YES over the window labeled on the card-often 24h where data allows.

Signals

Rule-based flags from ingested public data. They are not trade recommendations.

More detail in Methodology.

Sports · market-implied 23.6%

PolymarketVolume ~88,481.74← All markets

Recent price

23.6%

This market will resolve according to the next UFC fighter that Petr Yan is officially announced to face in a UFC bout. Resolution for this market will be based on the next UFC fighter that Petr Yan is officially announced to fight, regardless of whether the fight ends up taking place. Only official announcements from the UFC, which include a scheduled date for the bout, will count. Announcements with no date or which do not confirm that the fight is official, speculation, or other unofficial announcements will not count. If Yan is officially announced to fight any non-listed fighter or no qualifying announcement is made by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/).

Market summary

This market is currently priced at 23.6%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 11.3%, indicating a possible -12.3 percentage point difference.

Over the last 6h, market-implied probability moved from 22.9% to 23.6% (+0.6 pts).

Why this is flagged: 1h move +3.6 pts · 6.1× typical volatility

What this means

  • This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
  • Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
  • BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
  • Larger gaps can persist when the market is thin, has wide spreads, or is slow to update.

Execution

YES

Best bid (sell)
15¢
Best ask (buy)
32¢
Spread
17¢
Midpoint
24¢
Depth (top level)
bid 10.04 · ask 123.64

NO

Best bid (sell)
68¢
Best ask (buy)
85¢
Spread
17¢
Midpoint
76¢
Depth (top level)
bid 123.64 · ask 10.04