Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026?
Crypto · market-implied 43.0%
Recent price
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Metamask officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Metamask, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Active signals
Market Overreaction
Confidence Mid-highEdge
-10.7 pts
Strong edge
Market-implied
43.0%
Model estimate
67.8%
YES
43.0%
NO
57.0%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: 1h move -2.5 pts · 5.0× typical volatility
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
-1.5 pts
Early edge
Market-implied
43.0%
Model estimate
58.5%
YES
43.0%
NO
57.0%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +10.0 pts · Δ24h +10.0 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence Mid-highYES
43.0%
NO
57.0%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.070 · wide
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 43.0%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 32.3%, indicating a possible -10.7 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: 1h move -2.5 pts · 5.0× typical volatility
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
- Larger gaps can persist when the market is thin, has wide spreads, or is slow to update.
Related links
Execution
YES
NO