Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
World · market-implied 46.5%
Recent price
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Active signals
Market Overreaction
Confidence MidEdge
-7.0 pts
Strong edge
Market-implied
46.5%
Model estimate
60.5%
YES
46.5%
NO
53.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: 1h move -8.0 pts · 3.9× typical volatility
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
-13.5 pts
Strong edge
Market-implied
46.5%
Model estimate
67.0%
YES
46.5%
NO
53.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -10.5 pts · Δ24h -10.5 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
46.5%
NO
53.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.010 · thin top-book
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 46.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 39.5%, indicating a possible -7.0 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: 1h move -8.0 pts · 3.9× typical volatility
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
- Larger gaps can persist when the market is thin, has wide spreads, or is slow to update.
Related links
Related markets
Execution
YES
NO