BinaryStreaks

Will USD-denominated stablecoin market share fall below 99% in 2026?

Updated 9d ago

How to read the numbers

Implied / market-implied YES

The probability of YES implied by current traded prices (mid or last). It is what participants are paying for, not a claim about real-world odds.

Model estimate

A rule-based heuristic from the signal engine when a rule sets one, not a black-box forecast. Some signals only describe liquidity or spreads and may show no model estimate.

Edge / gap

The difference between the model estimate and market-implied, in percentage points (model minus market for YES). Filters may use “largest gap.” This is informational only-not trading advice or guaranteed advantage.

Stance (above / below / near estimate)

Compares market-implied to the model estimate when both exist. Labels are not buy or sell recommendations.

Confidence

A simple UI clarity label for signals (not a prediction). It summarizes the signal’s own magnitude/quality metrics into one of: Low, Mid-low, Mid, Mid-high, or High.

Volume

Reported trading activity for the market, for context on size and liquidity.

Change & sparklines

Movement in market-implied YES over the window labeled on the card-often 24h where data allows.

Signals

Rule-based flags from ingested public data. They are not trade recommendations.

More detail in Methodology.

Crypto · market-implied 11.0%

Below estimatePolymarketVolume ~46,013.955← All markets

Recent price

11.0%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the USD-denominated stablecoin supply falls below 99% of total stablecoin supply at any point in 2026. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” The resolution source is Artemis (https://app.artemisanalytics.com/stablecoins), using the “Stablecoin Supply by Currency” chart. The USD percentage shown when hovering over a monthly data point will be used. A monthly data point will be considered finalized once the following month’s data point is published. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve based on other reliable crypto data sources.

Active signals

Will USD-denominated stablecoin market share fall below 99% in 2026?
Polymarket
Below estimate

Trend Continuation

Confidence Low
Opportunity: YES sideModel leaning YES

Edge

+7.5 pts

Strong edge

Market-implied

11.0%

Model estimate

18.5%

YES

11.0%

NO

89.0%

Market-implied probability split (public data)

Why this is flagged: Δ6h +4.0 pts · Δ24h +4.0 pts (same direction)

Market summary

This market is currently priced at 11.0%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 18.5%, indicating a possible +7.5 percentage point difference.

Why this is flagged: Δ6h +4.0 pts · Δ24h +4.0 pts (same direction)

What this means

  • This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
  • Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
  • BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
  • Larger gaps can persist when the market is thin, has wide spreads, or is slow to update.

Related links

Browse all markets →Browse signals →Explore related topic →More in Crypto →

Related markets

Execution

YES

No live book

NO

No live book