BinaryStreaks

Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

How to read the numbers

Implied / market-implied YES

The probability of YES implied by current traded prices (mid or last). It is what participants are paying for, not a claim about real-world odds.

Estimated fair value (EFV)

A rule-based heuristic from the signal engine when a rule sets one, not a black-box forecast. Some signals only describe liquidity or spreads and may show no EFV.

Edge / gap

The difference between EFV and market-implied, in percentage points (EFV minus market for YES). Filters may use “largest gap.” This is informational only—not trading advice or guaranteed advantage.

Stance (above / below / near estimate)

Compares market-implied to EFV when both exist. Labels are not buy or sell recommendations.

Severity

How strong the rule hit is on a 1–5 scale. It reflects rule strength, not statistical confidence that the outcome will occur.

Volume

Reported trading activity for the market, for context on size and liquidity.

Change & sparklines

Movement in market-implied YES over the window labeled on the card—often 24h where data allows.

Signals

Rule-based flags from ingested public data. They are not trade recommendations.

More detail in Methodology.

Market-implied 0.1%

Near estimateVolume ~3,392,584.399← All markets

Recent price

0.1%

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. If it is impossible for a team to win the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament according to the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated) , the corresponding market will immediately resolve to “No”. If for any reason no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be information from the NCAA.

Active signals

Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?Near estimate

Overreaction

Market-implied

0.1%

Est. fair value

2.6%

Edge +2.6 pts (EFV − market)

Severity5 / 5

Why this is flagged: 1h move of -5.1 pts is 7.7× typical short-term volatility—larger than usual vs the past week.

Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?Near estimate

Momentum

Market-implied

0.1%

Est. fair value

2.0%

Edge +1.9 pts (EFV − market)

Severity2 / 5

Why this is flagged: 6h and 24h moves point the same direction; magnitude -5.1 pts / -6.3 pts—trend is consistent over these windows (not a prediction).

Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | BinaryStreaks