Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?
Politics · market-implied 7.5%
Recent price
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Active signals
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
+7.0 pts
Strong edge
Market-implied
7.5%
Model estimate
14.5%
YES
7.5%
NO
92.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -7.5 pts · Δ24h -7.5 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
7.5%
NO
92.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.010 vs 0.015 · thin top-book
Execution
YES
NO