BinaryStreaks

Madrid Open: Rafael Jodar vs Jesper de Jong

How to read the numbers

Implied / market-implied YES

The probability of YES implied by current traded prices (mid or last). It is what participants are paying for, not a claim about real-world odds.

Model estimate

A rule-based heuristic from the signal engine when a rule sets one, not a black-box forecast. Some signals only describe liquidity or spreads and may show no model estimate.

Edge / gap

The difference between the model estimate and market-implied, in percentage points (model minus market for YES). Filters may use “largest gap.” This is informational only-not trading advice or guaranteed advantage.

Stance (above / below / near estimate)

Compares market-implied to the model estimate when both exist. Labels are not buy or sell recommendations.

Confidence

A simple UI clarity label for signals (not a prediction). It summarizes the signal’s own magnitude/quality metrics into one of: Low, Mid-low, Mid, Mid-high, or High.

Volume

Reported trading activity for the market, for context on size and liquidity.

Change & sparklines

Movement in market-implied YES over the window labeled on the card-often 24h where data allows.

Signals

Rule-based flags from ingested public data. They are not trade recommendations.

More detail in Methodology.

Sports · market-implied 100.0%

Volume ~905,618.601← All markets

Recent price

100.0%

This market refers to the tennis match between Rafael Jodar and Jesper de Jong in the Madrid Open, originally scheduled for April 22, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Rafael Jodar' if Rafael Jodar advances against Jesper de Jong. This market will resolve to 'Jesper de Jong' if Jesper de Jong advances against Rafael Jodar. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Active signals

Madrid Open: Rafael Jodar vs Jesper de Jong

Trend Continuation

Confidence Mid-low
Opportunity: NO sideModel leaning NO

Edge

-2.0 pts

Early edge

Market-implied

100.0%

Model estimate

2.0%

YES

100.0%

NO

0.0%

Market-implied probability split (public data)

Why this is flagged: Δ6h +18.5 pts · Δ24h +18.5 pts (same direction)

Execution

YES

No live book

NO

No live book