US bank failure by April 30?
Business · market-implied 0.5%
Recent price
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Active signals
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
+1.5 pts
Early edge
Market-implied
0.5%
Model estimate
2.0%
YES
0.5%
NO
99.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -3.0 pts · Δ24h -3.0 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
0.5%
NO
99.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.020 · thin top-book
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 0.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 2.0%, indicating a possible +1.5 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -3.0 pts · Δ24h -3.0 pts (same direction)
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
Execution
YES
NO