Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in April?
cpi · market-implied 29.5%
Recent price
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in April 2026 according to the monthly BLS report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Active signals
Market Overreaction
Confidence HighEdge
+3.3 pts
Moderate edge
Market-implied
29.5%
Model estimate
32.8%
YES
29.5%
NO
70.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: 1h move -2.5 pts · 5.0× typical volatility
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
+4.5 pts
Moderate edge
Market-implied
29.5%
Model estimate
34.0%
YES
29.5%
NO
70.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +5.0 pts · Δ24h +3.0 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
29.5%
NO
70.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.010 · thin top-book
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 29.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 32.8%, indicating a possible +3.3 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: 1h move -2.5 pts · 5.0× typical volatility
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
Related markets
Execution
YES
NO