Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?
World · market-implied 21.0%
Recent price
On October 9, 2025 Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Active signals
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence Mid-highYES
21.0%
NO
79.0%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.130 vs 0.010 · wide
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
0.0 pts
Market-implied
21.0%
Model estimate
-
YES
21.0%
NO
79.0%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +5.5 pts · Δ24h +6.0 pts (same direction)
Market summary
This page summarizes current market-implied probability and any active rule-based signals from ingested public data.
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.130 vs 0.010 · wide
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
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- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
Related links
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Execution
YES
NO