Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff?
Elections · market-implied 98.0%
Recent price
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates who advance to the runoff of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election. If a different combination of candidates than those listed below advances to the runoff, if no runoff is being held, for example, because a candidate wins the first round outright, or if the candidates of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/).
Active signals
Market Overreaction
Confidence MidEdge
-12.0 pts
Strong edge
Market-implied
98.0%
Model estimate
14.1%
YES
98.0%
NO
2.0%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: 1h move +7.0 pts · 3.5× typical volatility
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
98.0%
NO
2.0%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.034 vs 0.019 · thin top-book
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
-3.0 pts
Moderate edge
Market-implied
98.0%
Model estimate
5.0%
YES
98.0%
NO
2.0%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -3.2 pts · Δ24h -3.7 pts (same direction)
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 98.0%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 85.9%, indicating a possible -12.0 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: 1h move +7.0 pts · 3.5× typical volatility
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
- Larger gaps can persist when the market is thin, has wide spreads, or is slow to update.
Related markets
- Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
- Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
- Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
- Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Execution
YES
NO