Will BC.Game make a roster move before May?

Updated 10d ago

How to read the numbers

Implied / market-implied YES

The probability of YES implied by current traded prices (mid or last). It is what participants are paying for, not a claim about real-world odds.

Model estimate

A rule-based heuristic from the signal engine when a rule sets one, not a black-box forecast. Some signals only describe liquidity or spreads and may show no model estimate.

Edge / gap

The difference between the model estimate and market-implied, in percentage points (model minus market for YES). Filters may use “largest gap.” This is informational only-not trading advice or guaranteed advantage.

Stance (above / below / near estimate)

Compares market-implied to the model estimate when both exist. Labels are not buy or sell recommendations.

Confidence

A simple UI clarity label for signals (not a prediction). It summarizes the signal’s own magnitude/quality metrics into one of: Low, Mid-low, Mid, Mid-high, or High.

Volume

Reported trading activity for the market, for context on size and liquidity.

Change & sparklines

Movement in market-implied YES over the window labeled on the card-often 24h where data allows.

Signals

Rule-based flags from ingested public data. They are not trade recommendations.

More detail in Methodology.

Sports · market-implied 71.3%

Above estimatePolymarketVolume ~44,339.844← All markets

Recent price

71.3%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any player joins or leaves BC.Game's main CS2 roster (defined as players listed with status = “Starter” in the “Players of BC.Game” table on HLTV: https://www.hltv.org/team/12878/bcgame#tab-rosterBox) by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". As of market creation the active starter roster consists of the following five players: s1mple, electroNic, aragornN, krazy, and MUTiRiS. Name changes or aliases referring to the same player do not qualify as roster changes. For the purpose of this market, "roster change" refers to any official signing, transfer, benching to inactive/reserve, release, retirement, or departure of a player from the active starter lineup. This includes adding new players (transfers, free agent signings, or loans), removing players (to bench/inactive, free agency, or other teams), or any change resulting in a different 5-player active roster on HLTV. Coach changes and temporary stand-ins for a single event, will not count. For matches and events, the stand-in appears in the active 5-player lineup but with a clear marker (e.g., [SI]) to distinguish them from the core roster. The primary resolution source for this market will be HLTV; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Market summary

This market is currently priced at 71.3%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 57.1%, indicating a possible -14.1 percentage point difference.

Why this is flagged: Δ6h +10.2 pts · Δ24h +10.2 pts (same direction)

What this means

  • This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
  • Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
  • BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
  • Larger gaps can persist when the market is thin, has wide spreads, or is slow to update.

Execution

YES

Best bid (sell)
71¢
Best ask (buy)
71¢
Spread
Midpoint
71¢
Depth (top level)
bid 8.12 · ask 12

NO

Best bid (sell)
29¢
Best ask (buy)
29¢
Spread
Midpoint
29¢
Depth (top level)
bid 12 · ask 8.12