BinaryStreaks

Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30?

Updated 6h ago

How to read the numbers

Implied / market-implied YES

The probability of YES implied by current traded prices (mid or last). It is what participants are paying for, not a claim about real-world odds.

Model estimate

A rule-based heuristic from the signal engine when a rule sets one, not a black-box forecast. Some signals only describe liquidity or spreads and may show no model estimate.

Edge / gap

The difference between the model estimate and market-implied, in percentage points (model minus market for YES). Filters may use “largest gap.” This is informational only-not trading advice or guaranteed advantage.

Stance (above / below / near estimate)

Compares market-implied to the model estimate when both exist. Labels are not buy or sell recommendations.

Confidence

A simple UI clarity label for signals (not a prediction). It summarizes the signal’s own magnitude/quality metrics into one of: Low, Mid-low, Mid, Mid-high, or High.

Volume

Reported trading activity for the market, for context on size and liquidity.

Change & sparklines

Movement in market-implied YES over the window labeled on the card-often 24h where data allows.

Signals

Rule-based flags from ingested public data. They are not trade recommendations.

More detail in Methodology.

Israel · market-implied 42.5%

PolymarketVolume ~17,839.99← All markets

Recent price

42.5%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against any power plant in Iran between the time of market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market. Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Active signals

Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30?
Polymarket

Trend Continuation

Confidence Low

Edge

0.0 pts

Market-implied

42.5%

Model estimate

-

YES

42.5%

NO

57.5%

Market-implied probability split (public data)

Why this is flagged: Δ6h -11.0 pts · Δ24h -11.0 pts (same direction)

Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30?
Polymarket

Low Liquidity Warning

Confidence Mid

YES

42.5%

NO

57.5%

Market-implied probability split (public data)

Why this is flagged: Spread 0.010 vs 0.020 · thin top-book

Market summary

This market is currently priced at 42.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 42.5%, indicating a possible 0.0 percentage point difference.

Why this is flagged: Δ6h -11.0 pts · Δ24h -11.0 pts (same direction)

What this means

  • This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
  • Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
  • BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.

Related links

Browse all markets →Browse signals →Explore related topic →More in Israel →

Related markets

Execution

YES

Best bid (sell)
42¢
Best ask (buy)
43¢
Spread
1¢
Midpoint
43¢

NO

No live book