BinaryStreaks

Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026?

Updated 2d ago

How to read the numbers

Implied / market-implied YES

The probability of YES implied by current traded prices (mid or last). It is what participants are paying for, not a claim about real-world odds.

Model estimate

A rule-based heuristic from the signal engine when a rule sets one, not a black-box forecast. Some signals only describe liquidity or spreads and may show no model estimate.

Edge / gap

The difference between the model estimate and market-implied, in percentage points (model minus market for YES). Filters may use “largest gap.” This is informational only-not trading advice or guaranteed advantage.

Stance (above / below / near estimate)

Compares market-implied to the model estimate when both exist. Labels are not buy or sell recommendations.

Confidence

A simple UI clarity label for signals (not a prediction). It summarizes the signal’s own magnitude/quality metrics into one of: Low, Mid-low, Mid, Mid-high, or High.

Volume

Reported trading activity for the market, for context on size and liquidity.

Change & sparklines

Movement in market-implied YES over the window labeled on the card-often 24h where data allows.

Signals

Rule-based flags from ingested public data. They are not trade recommendations.

More detail in Methodology.

World · market-implied 100.0%

Above estimatePolymarketVolume ~239,925.575← All markets

Recent price

100.0%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Viktor Orbán ceases to be Prime Minister of Hungary for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Viktor Orbán's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Viktor Orbán and the government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Active signals

Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026?
Polymarket
Above estimate

Trend Continuation

Confidence Low
Opportunity: NO sideModel leaning NO

Edge

-35.0 pts

Strong edge

Market-implied

100.0%

Model estimate

35.0%

YES

100.0%

NO

0.0%

Market-implied probability split (public data)

Why this is flagged: Δ6h -3.0 pts · Δ24h -3.0 pts (same direction)

Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026?
Polymarket

Low Liquidity Warning

Confidence Mid

YES

100.0%

NO

0.0%

Market-implied probability split (public data)

Why this is flagged: Spread 0.001 · thin top-book

Market summary

This market is currently priced at 100.0%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 65.0%, indicating a possible -35.0 percentage point difference.

Why this is flagged: Δ6h -3.0 pts · Δ24h -3.0 pts (same direction)

What this means

  • This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
  • Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
  • BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
  • Larger gaps can persist when the market is thin, has wide spreads, or is slow to update.

Related links

Browse all markets →Browse signals →Explore related topic →More in World →

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Execution

YES

No live book

NO

No live book