Politics · market-implied 1.1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly praises Allah between the time of its creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying statement includes any remark by Donald Trump that expresses approval, admiration, respect, or reverence for the Islamic deity referred to as Allah. This can include direct praise (e.g., “Praise be to Allah”) or equivalent positive descriptions (“Allah is great”). General neutrality or polite diplomatic language (e.g., “Yes, I posted about Allah”) will not qualify unless it contains a clear element of positive evaluation. Any written, verbal, or recorded usage will qualify. Text or speech contained in images, memes, or videos posted by Trump on his official social media accounts will qualify if it clearly expresses approval, admiration, respect, or reverence toward Allah, provided that any additional posted commentary from Trump does not explicitly contradict that sentiment. Media contained only within reposts or posts quoted by Trump will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be public statements from Donald Trump.
Market Overreaction
Confidence MidEdge
+1.6 pts
Early edge
Market-implied
1.1%
Model estimate
2.8%
YES
1.1%
NO
98.8%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: 1h move -3.2 pts · 3.4× typical volatility
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
+0.9 pts
Early edge
Market-implied
1.1%
Model estimate
2.0%
YES
1.1%
NO
98.8%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -3.2 pts · Δ24h -3.2 pts (same direction)
This market is currently priced at 1.1%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 2.8%, indicating a possible +1.6 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: 1h move -3.2 pts · 3.4× typical volatility
YES
NO