BinaryStreaks

Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged?

How to read the numbers

Implied / market-implied YES

The probability of YES implied by current traded prices (mid or last). It is what participants are paying for, not a claim about real-world odds.

Estimated fair value (EFV)

A rule-based heuristic from the signal engine when a rule sets one, not a black-box forecast. Some signals only describe liquidity or spreads and may show no EFV.

Edge / gap

The difference between EFV and market-implied, in percentage points (EFV minus market for YES). Filters may use “largest gap.” This is informational only—not trading advice or guaranteed advantage.

Stance (above / below / near estimate)

Compares market-implied to EFV when both exist. Labels are not buy or sell recommendations.

Severity

How strong the rule hit is on a 1–5 scale. It reflects rule strength, not statistical confidence that the outcome will occur.

Volume

Reported trading activity for the market, for context on size and liquidity.

Change & sparklines

Movement in market-implied YES over the window labeled on the card—often 24h where data allows.

Signals

Rule-based flags from ingested public data. They are not trade recommendations.

More detail in Methodology.

Market-implied 0.8%

—Volume ~731,764.737← All markets

Recent price

0.8%

On January 24, 2026, a federal immigration agent shot and killed a man in Minneapolis, Minnesota, during a federal immigration enforcement operation (see: https://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/ice-minneapolis-shooting-01-24-26). This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of the federal immigration agent who fired the shots in the January 24, 2026 Minneapolis shooting, for any alleged crime relating to the shooting, between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For a “Yes” resolution, the charged individual does not need to be an active federal immigration agent at the time the charges are made, as long as they were the shooter in the specified event. For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Active signals

Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged?—

Order book

Market-implied

0.8%

Est. fair value

—

No EFV for this rule — liquidity / spread only.

Severity1 / 5

Why this is flagged: Top-of-book liquidity is thinner than usual at a 0.004 bid–ask spread—min side is well under recent median depth. Prices may be noisier.

Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged? | BinaryStreaks