US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
World · market-implied 7.5%
Recent price
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Active signals
Market Overreaction
Confidence MidEdge
+0.0 pts
Early edge
Market-implied
7.5%
Model estimate
7.5%
YES
7.5%
NO
92.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: 1h move -2.0 pts · 3.5× typical volatility
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
7.5%
NO
92.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.010 · thin top-book
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 7.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 7.5%, indicating a possible +0.0 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: 1h move -2.0 pts · 3.5× typical volatility
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
Related markets
Execution
YES
NO