Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?
World · market-implied 7.4%
Recent price
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Active signals
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
+1.6 pts
Early edge
Market-implied
7.4%
Model estimate
9.0%
YES
7.4%
NO
92.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -3.5 pts · Δ24h -3.5 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
7.4%
NO
92.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.026 vs 0.020 · thin top-book
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 7.4%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 9.0%, indicating a possible +1.6 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -3.5 pts · Δ24h -3.5 pts (same direction)
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
Related links
Related markets
Execution
YES
NO