BinaryStreaks

Will Finland join the Board of Peace?

How to read the numbers

Implied / market-implied YES

The probability of YES implied by current traded prices (mid or last). It is what participants are paying for, not a claim about real-world odds.

Estimated fair value (EFV)

A rule-based heuristic from the signal engine when a rule sets one, not a black-box forecast. Some signals only describe liquidity or spreads and may show no EFV.

Edge / gap

The difference between EFV and market-implied, in percentage points (EFV minus market for YES). Filters may use “largest gap.” This is informational only—not trading advice or guaranteed advantage.

Stance (above / below / near estimate)

Compares market-implied to EFV when both exist. Labels are not buy or sell recommendations.

Severity

How strong the rule hit is on a 1–5 scale. It reflects rule strength, not statistical confidence that the outcome will occur.

Volume

Reported trading activity for the market, for context on size and liquidity.

Change & sparklines

Movement in market-implied YES over the window labeled on the card—often 24h where data allows.

Signals

Rule-based flags from ingested public data. They are not trade recommendations.

More detail in Methodology.

Market-implied 0.8%

—Volume ~577,940.562← All markets

Recent price

0.8%

Donald Trump and the United States recently sent invitations to countries around the world, inviting them to join the US-led Board of Peace which will oversee conflict resolution in Gaza and elsewhere (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-names-rubio-blair-kushner-gaza-board-under-trumps-plan-2026-01-17/). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed country joins the Board of Peace by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A country will be considered to have joined the Board of Peace if either of the following conditions are met: - That country's government publicly and definitively announces that the country will join the Board of Peace as a founding member, permanent member, or as any other type of member state. - Official information from the country’s government or a consensus of credible reporting demonstrates that the listed country has formally joined the Board of Peace (e.g. an authorized representative has signed the charter of the Board of Peace). Only statements or announcements which are definitive in their expression of intent to join the Board of Peace will qualify (e.g. “we agree to join the board of peace,” “we accepted an invitation to the board of peace,” etc.). Statements which are not definitive in their expression of intent to join (e.g. “we agree in principle”, “we will join pending further details”, “we are ready to do our part in working for the reconstruction of Gaza” etc.) will not count. Qualifying announcements within this market’s timeframe will count regardless of when the relevant country intends to join the board of peace, or whether or not they ultimately join. Statements from Donald Trump or the US government will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the listed country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Active signals

No active signals for this market.