Iran coup attempt by June 30?
World · market-implied 14.5%
Recent price
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify. Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Active signals
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
-1.0 pts
Early edge
Market-implied
14.5%
Model estimate
86.5%
YES
14.5%
NO
85.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +3.5 pts · Δ24h +3.5 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
14.5%
NO
85.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.010 · thin top-book
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 14.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 13.5%, indicating a possible -1.0 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +3.5 pts · Δ24h +3.5 pts (same direction)
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
Related markets
Execution
YES
NO