Politics · market-implied 56.0%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual speaks with Donald Trump between May 1 and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Speaking is defined as any verbal interaction between the listed individual and Donald Trump, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call. The resolution source will be credible media reporting. However, in the absence of definitive or in the case of contradictory media reporting, statements by either of the specified individuals or their official representatives will also be considered. Statements by the specified individuals or their official representatives will only be considered conclusive if the claims explicitly, or in context unambiguously, indicate that a qualifying talk occurred within the specified timeframe and took place via verbal communication, and provided that such claims are not contradicted by the other specified individual, their representatives, or credible media reporting by the end of the third calendar date (ET) following the statement in question. If the date/time of a qualifying talk cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day following this market's above-specified timeframe, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
-1.5 pts
Early edge
Market-implied
56.0%
Model estimate
45.5%
YES
56.0%
NO
44.0%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -6.0 pts · Δ24h -10.5 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
56.0%
NO
44.0%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.040 vs 0.030 · thin top-book
This market is currently priced at 56.0%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 54.5%, indicating a possible -1.5 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -6.0 pts · Δ24h -10.5 pts (same direction)
YES
NO