AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?
AI · market-implied 22.5%
Recent price
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Active signals
Market Overreaction
Confidence MidEdge
-6.8 pts
Strong edge
Market-implied
22.5%
Model estimate
84.3%
YES
22.5%
NO
77.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: 1h move +1.5 pts · 3.0× typical volatility
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
0.0 pts
Market-implied
22.5%
Model estimate
-
YES
22.5%
NO
77.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +6.0 pts · Δ24h +6.0 pts (same direction)
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 22.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 15.8%, indicating a possible -6.8 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: 1h move +1.5 pts · 3.0× typical volatility
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
- Larger gaps can persist when the market is thin, has wide spreads, or is slow to update.
Related markets
- Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
- Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
- Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
- Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
- Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
- Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?
Execution
YES
No live book
NO
No live book