Politics · market-implied 91.5%
This market will resolve according to the first entity that acquires control of Warner Bros. Discovery's studios and streaming businesses by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Transactions that involve only Warner Bros. Discovery's linear television networks, news channels, or other non-studio, non-streaming assets, without also transferring control of its studios and streaming businesses, will not qualify. Announcements of non-finalized arrangements — including, the currently announced Netflix agreement to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery’s studios and streaming businesses — will not qualify. If no entity acquires control of Warner Bros. Discovery's studios and streaming businesses by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "None by June 30 2027". Resolution will be based on by a consensus of reporting.
Market Overreaction
Confidence MidEdge
-22.3 pts
Strong edge
Market-implied
91.5%
Model estimate
30.8%
YES
91.5%
NO
8.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: 1h move +6.5 pts · 3.4× typical volatility
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
-19.1 pts
Strong edge
Market-implied
91.5%
Model estimate
27.5%
YES
91.5%
NO
8.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +6.5 pts · Δ24h +6.5 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
91.5%
NO
8.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.040 vs 0.030 · thin top-book
This market is currently priced at 91.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 69.3%, indicating a possible -22.3 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: 1h move +6.5 pts · 3.4× typical volatility
YES
NO