BinaryStreaks

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

Updated 3d ago

How to read the numbers

Implied / market-implied YES

The probability of YES implied by current traded prices (mid or last). It is what participants are paying for, not a claim about real-world odds.

Model estimate

A rule-based heuristic from the signal engine when a rule sets one, not a black-box forecast. Some signals only describe liquidity or spreads and may show no model estimate.

Edge / gap

The difference between the model estimate and market-implied, in percentage points (model minus market for YES). Filters may use “largest gap.” This is informational only-not trading advice or guaranteed advantage.

Stance (above / below / near estimate)

Compares market-implied to the model estimate when both exist. Labels are not buy or sell recommendations.

Confidence

A simple UI clarity label for signals (not a prediction). It summarizes the signal’s own magnitude/quality metrics into one of: Low, Mid-low, Mid, Mid-high, or High.

Volume

Reported trading activity for the market, for context on size and liquidity.

Change & sparklines

Movement in market-implied YES over the window labeled on the card-often 24h where data allows.

Signals

Rule-based flags from ingested public data. They are not trade recommendations.

More detail in Methodology.

Politics · market-implied 9.5%

PolymarketVolume ~190,876.622← All markets

Recent price

9.5%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.

Active signals

Iran nuclear test before 2027?
Polymarket

Trend Continuation

Confidence Low
Opportunity: NO sideModel leaning NO

Edge

-1.0 pts

Early edge

Market-implied

9.5%

Model estimate

91.5%

YES

9.5%

NO

90.5%

Market-implied probability split (public data)

Why this is flagged: Δ6h -3.5 pts · Δ24h -3.5 pts (same direction)

Iran nuclear test before 2027?
Polymarket

Low Liquidity Warning

Confidence Mid

YES

9.5%

NO

90.5%

Market-implied probability split (public data)

Why this is flagged: Spread 0.010 vs 0.015 · thin top-book

Market summary

This market is currently priced at 9.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 8.5%, indicating a possible -1.0 percentage point difference.

Why this is flagged: Δ6h -3.5 pts · Δ24h -3.5 pts (same direction)

What this means

  • This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
  • Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
  • BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.

Related links

Browse all markets →Browse signals →Explore related topic →More in Politics →

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Execution

YES

Best bid (sell)
9¢
Best ask (buy)
10¢
Spread
1¢
Midpoint
10¢
Depth (top level)
bid 50.8 · ask 2,227.58

NO

Best bid (sell)
90¢
Best ask (buy)
91¢
Spread
1¢
Midpoint
91¢
Depth (top level)
bid 2,227.58 · ask 50.8