Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?
World · market-implied 0.5%
Recent price
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Active signals
Market Overreaction
Confidence MidEdge
+1.7 pts
Early edge
Market-implied
0.5%
Model estimate
2.2%
YES
0.5%
NO
99.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: 1h move -3.4 pts · 3.6× typical volatility
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
+1.5 pts
Early edge
Market-implied
0.5%
Model estimate
2.0%
YES
0.5%
NO
99.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -3.4 pts · Δ24h -3.4 pts (same direction)
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 0.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 2.2%, indicating a possible +1.7 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: 1h move -3.4 pts · 3.6× typical volatility
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
Related markets
Execution
YES
NO
No live book