Will Elon Musk post 1280-1319 tweets in March 2026?
Market-implied 28.5%
Recent price
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of March 2026. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Active signals
Order book
Market-implied
28.5%
Est. fair value
—
No EFV for this rule — liquidity / spread only.
Why this is flagged: Spread is 0.091 vs typical 0.025—wider than recent norms. Prices may be noisier.
Momentum
Market-implied
28.5%
Est. fair value
28.5%
Edge 0.0 pts (EFV − market)
Why this is flagged: 6h and 24h moves point the same direction; magnitude 20.2 pts / 10.2 pts—trend is consistent over these windows (not a prediction).