BinaryStreaks

Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%?

Updated 5d ago

How to read the numbers

Implied / market-implied YES

The probability of YES implied by current traded prices (mid or last). It is what participants are paying for, not a claim about real-world odds.

Model estimate

A rule-based heuristic from the signal engine when a rule sets one, not a black-box forecast. Some signals only describe liquidity or spreads and may show no model estimate.

Edge / gap

The difference between the model estimate and market-implied, in percentage points (model minus market for YES). Filters may use “largest gap.” This is informational only-not trading advice or guaranteed advantage.

Stance (above / below / near estimate)

Compares market-implied to the model estimate when both exist. Labels are not buy or sell recommendations.

Confidence

A simple UI clarity label for signals (not a prediction). It summarizes the signal’s own magnitude/quality metrics into one of: Low, Mid-low, Mid, Mid-high, or High.

Volume

Reported trading activity for the market, for context on size and liquidity.

Change & sparklines

Movement in market-implied YES over the window labeled on the card-often 24h where data allows.

Signals

Rule-based flags from ingested public data. They are not trade recommendations.

More detail in Methodology.

Politics · market-implied 0.9%

PolymarketVolume ~94,481.677← All markets

Recent price

0.9%

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage (% Total Asistentes) in the first round presidential elections, calculated by dividing attendees (Asistentes) by eligible voters (Electores hábiles). This market will resolve solely based on turnout for the first-round Presidential (Presidencial) election; turnout for Congress members (Congresistas), the Senate (Senado), or the Andean Parliament (Parlamento Andino) will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)

Active signals

Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%?
Polymarket

Trend Continuation

Confidence Low
Opportunity: YES sideModel leaning YES

Edge

+1.1 pts

Early edge

Market-implied

0.9%

Model estimate

2.0%

YES

0.9%

NO

99.0%

Market-implied probability split (public data)

Why this is flagged: Δ6h -4.3 pts · Δ24h -4.3 pts (same direction)

Market summary

This market is currently priced at 0.9%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 2.0%, indicating a possible +1.1 percentage point difference.

Why this is flagged: Δ6h -4.3 pts · Δ24h -4.3 pts (same direction)

What this means

  • This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
  • Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
  • BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.

Related links

Browse all markets →Browse signals →Explore related topic →More in Politics →

Related markets

Execution

YES

Best bid (sell)
1¢
Best ask (buy)
1¢
Spread
0¢
Midpoint
1¢
Depth (top level)
bid 1,146.24 · ask 15

NO

Best bid (sell)
99¢
Best ask (buy)
99¢
Spread
0¢
Midpoint
99¢
Depth (top level)
bid 15 · ask 1,146.24