BinaryStreaks

Will Clavicular be Iran's next Supreme Leader by March 31st?

How to read the numbers

Implied / market-implied YES

The probability of YES implied by current traded prices (mid or last). It is what participants are paying for, not a claim about real-world odds.

Estimated fair value (EFV)

A rule-based heuristic from the signal engine when a rule sets one, not a black-box forecast. Some signals only describe liquidity or spreads and may show no EFV.

Edge / gap

The difference between EFV and market-implied, in percentage points (EFV minus market for YES). Filters may use “largest gap.” This is informational only—not trading advice or guaranteed advantage.

Stance (above / below / near estimate)

Compares market-implied to EFV when both exist. Labels are not buy or sell recommendations.

Severity

How strong the rule hit is on a 1–5 scale. It reflects rule strength, not statistical confidence that the outcome will occur.

Volume

Reported trading activity for the market, for context on size and liquidity.

Change & sparklines

Movement in market-implied YES over the window labeled on the card—often 24h where data allows.

Signals

Rule-based flags from ingested public data. They are not trade recommendations.

More detail in Methodology.

Market-implied 0.1%

—Volume ~1,137,352.472← All markets

Recent price

—0.1%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clavicular is officially named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran (or a clear direct replacement title for the role) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Mojtaba Khamenei. If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of Iran. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Active signals

No active signals for this market.