Business · market-implied 99.9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No". This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Trend Continuation
Confidence Mid-lowEdge
-1.9 pts
Early edge
Market-implied
99.9%
Model estimate
2.0%
YES
99.9%
NO
0.1%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +12.1 pts · Δ24h +12.1 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
99.9%
NO
0.1%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.013 vs 0.012 · thin top-book
This market is currently priced at 99.9%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 98.0%, indicating a possible -1.9 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +12.1 pts · Δ24h +12.1 pts (same direction)
YES
NO