Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?
Iran · market-implied 68.5%
Recent price
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Active signals
Trend Continuation
Confidence Mid-lowEdge
-2.0 pts
Moderate edge
Market-implied
68.5%
Model estimate
33.5%
YES
68.5%
NO
31.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +3.0 pts · Δ24h +24.0 pts (same direction)
Market Overreaction
Confidence MidEdge
-34.3 pts
Strong edge
Market-implied
68.5%
Model estimate
65.8%
YES
68.5%
NO
31.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: 1h move -12.5 pts · 3.1× typical volatility
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
68.5%
NO
31.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.070 · thin top-book
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 68.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 66.5%, indicating a possible -2.0 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +3.0 pts · Δ24h +24.0 pts (same direction)
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
Execution
YES
NO