Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?

Updated 2d ago

How to read the numbers

Implied / market-implied YES

The probability of YES implied by current traded prices (mid or last). It is what participants are paying for, not a claim about real-world odds.

Model estimate

A rule-based heuristic from the signal engine when a rule sets one, not a black-box forecast. Some signals only describe liquidity or spreads and may show no model estimate.

Edge / gap

The difference between the model estimate and market-implied, in percentage points (model minus market for YES). Filters may use “largest gap.” This is informational only-not trading advice or guaranteed advantage.

Stance (above / below / near estimate)

Compares market-implied to the model estimate when both exist. Labels are not buy or sell recommendations.

Confidence

A simple UI clarity label for signals (not a prediction). It summarizes the signal’s own magnitude/quality metrics into one of: Low, Mid-low, Mid, Mid-high, or High.

Volume

Reported trading activity for the market, for context on size and liquidity.

Change & sparklines

Movement in market-implied YES over the window labeled on the card-often 24h where data allows.

Signals

Rule-based flags from ingested public data. They are not trade recommendations.

More detail in Methodology.

Politics · market-implied 2.3%

PolymarketVolume ~249,294.424← All markets

Recent price

2.3%

Zohran Mamdani has proposed creating city owned grocery stores to combat rising prices (see: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/12/nyregion/grocery-stores-city-owned.html). This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur: 1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election. 2. The City of New York implements a policy under which at least one grocery store that is city-owned and operated is actively open to the public by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The policy will be considered to have been implemented if at least one such store is open for regular grocery retail sales to the public by the resolution date. The enactment or announcement of a policy without an operational, open store will not alone qualify. Policies that are blocked, cancelled, or not yet in effect by the resolution date will similarly not qualify. Limited pilots, studies, planning initiatives, or temporary pop-up markets which don’t regularly operate as regular grocery stores do not qualify. Partnerships which include partial city ownership will qualify as long as the store is substantively under City of New York control. Partnerships with non-profit or other operators which don’t include direct city ownership of the store will not qualify. Only stores that are initiated, approved, or opened during Zohran Mamdani’s mayoralty and that are described in credible reporting or official City communications as part of the “city-owned grocery store” initiative associated with his campaign platform will qualify. Grocery stores created by previous or subsequent administrations, or any other government-run or subsidized retail programs that are not reasonably attributable to the Mamdani administration’s city-owned grocery store policy, will not qualify. If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, this market will immediately resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Market summary

This page summarizes current market-implied probability and any active rule-based signals from ingested public data.

Why this is flagged: Spread 0.025 vs 0.003 · thin top-book

What this means

  • This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
  • Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
  • BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.

Execution

YES

Best bid (sell)
Best ask (buy)
Spread
Midpoint
Depth (top level)
bid 17.72 · ask 8.6

NO

Best bid (sell)
97¢
Best ask (buy)
98¢
Spread
Midpoint
98¢
Depth (top level)
bid 8.6 · ask 17.72