No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
World · market-implied 99.6%
Recent price
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for April is scheduled to be released on April 28, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting. If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Active signals
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
-4.0 pts
Moderate edge
Market-implied
99.6%
Model estimate
4.4%
YES
99.6%
NO
0.4%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +5.3 pts · Δ24h +5.3 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
99.6%
NO
0.4%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.005 vs 0.003 · thin top-book
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 99.6%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 95.6%, indicating a possible -4.0 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +5.3 pts · Δ24h +5.3 pts (same direction)
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
Related markets
Execution
YES
NO